Peak Oil

[Harlequin]

Actually that last ain't a risk, IMO.  One of the best and most efficient solar 'power' apps being sold now is simply water heaters; the glorified version of a set of water pipes painted black to put on your roof.  Saves heating that amount of water using gas or electric.  I've considered it, seeing as I have this huge roof which all looks straight south... but insolation where I live sucks.

So of the things you're likely to have to trade off... hot water is low on the list.  Depending on where you live, of course.  But otherwise I think Walt's bang on the money; substitute some other luxury-use instead.

As a note, though, things like the fresh water requirements for making computers are not going to be able to go down very far.  I work in a related industry, and it costs a huge amount of ultrapure water (DI water, so pure that drinking it could destroy your intestines by reverse osmosis), which is energy+water, to do semiconductor processing.  There's not a lot of room for resource savings there, I'm afraid... you rapidly hit a tradeoff where less waste purifying the stuff means more waste as yields go down.

For my part, I've simply been making home improvements (when otherwise warranted) with the assumption that the price of oil will at least triple during the lifetime of the appliance.  This seems to have worked well so far.  It's a long shot from going off-grid, but if it has a hope of paying for itself in today's gas prices, I say it's actually a bargain.

- Eric

[Valamir]

I'm of the opinion that the rising cost of oil will drive the development of replacements.  Cleaning up coal and nuclear, renewables, etc.

BL>  You are a man of great faith.  I admire that even as I think it is wildly incorrect.

yrs--
--Ben

But its happening already.  There are folks looking at ways to make coal burn cleaner...coal...there's still plenty of that.

There's a big lobby for increased Ethanol use, and for the first time ever a gallon of ethanol is now significantly cheaper than a gallon of gasoline.  New ethanol plants are being built by the dozen and detroit is already producing cars that can be retrofitted in the future to burn 85% ethanol mixes if that were necessary.  They aren't geared to do that today because the technology adds several thousand to the price of a car and its still cheaper to run on gasoline.  But if at some point in the future the price of oil becomes such that that's not the case, the technology already exists to reduce the amount of gasoline burned on our nations highways by a tremendous amount.  There's absolutely no reason to do that as long as oil is cheaper.

Its not as if one day all of the wells in the world will stop pumping and the next day everyone will wonder what to do.

[Ben Lehman]

Its not as if one day all of the wells in the world will stop pumping and the next day everyone will wonder what to do.

BL>  Boy, Ralph.  I just love it when you argue against things that no one has said.  That's just awesome.  It's the best.

I'm skeptical of everyone.  I am skeptical of the people who say that society is going to fall apart, because societies tend to be pretty robust.  I'm skeptical of free-market fundamentalists who apparently have never seen an exponential growth function in their entire lives.  And I'm skeptical as hell about people who can't be bothered to listen to what others are saying.

I don't care if you find out how to burn coal so it smells like daisies.  You cannot, and will not, keep up with exponential growth.

Let us assume, briefly, that the use of energy is going to continue on its exponential curve, which is reasonable, because that's exactly what it has done for the entire course of humans as a species and at least some of life before that.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to the dawn of life.

Let us assume that the entire earth, not just the biosphere, but the entire globe, is through and through constituted entirely of oil.

How long until we tap that source dry?

160 years.

That is not a lot of time.  And that's a serious best-case-scenario.

Now, our energy sources are presently located entirely within the biosphere, a tiny shell around the earth, thinner than the skin on an apple.  That's coal, natural gas, petroleum.  Anything.  So we've got a lot less time that 160 years.

This is a problem.

Now, one or both of the following things is going to happen.  Because I'm an optimist, I imagine it will be a little of both.

1)  The exponential will break.  That means dramatic changes around the way that humans use energy or a massive die-off or both.  Die-off means war, famine, oppression, riots, starvation, and general social collapse.

2)  We will need to discover new, hopefully renewable, sources of energy to slake our thirst.  This is building functional nuclear fission, some development in fusion, solar, wind, hydro, tidal and geothermal.

Right now, we're at a hunter-gatherer stage of civilization, in terms of energy.  It can't last forever.  If people are preparing now to try and change the way we use energy and the way we get it, in order to avoid more traumatic problems, then more power to them.  Let's break the exponential gently.  If we can manage it, things will turn out much better for all involved.

But this is all beyond the realm of quarterly reports, or even annuals, so I wouldn't expect any publically traded corporation to take a serious interest in the problem.  You act like a die-off can't happen, like economics will fix everything.  Die-offs and social collapses have happened all throughout human history.  Sometimes the most economically reasonable choice is to hole up in a compound with a bunch of guns.  No reason to think it wouldn't happen again.

yrs--
--Ben

[Christopher Weeks]

Now, our energy sources are presently located entirely within the biosphere, a tiny shell around the earth, thinner than the skin on an apple.  That's coal, natural gas, petroleum.  Anything.  So we've got a lot less time that 160 years.

Is this claim inclusive of the area theorized to be producing petroleum by abiotic organisms?  I mean, obviously "biosphere" includes all life, but there might be life much deeper than is traditionally meant by that.  I haven't decided yet if the Deep Hot Biosphere folks are onto something (and I probably won't until the theory is mainstreamed) but if so, the equation changes some.

Not that I disagree with your basic premis about exponential demand growth.

More troubling, for the near term is that there are maybe two billion people on Earth who haven't been using much oil like we all have who will be wanting to right about now.

Ralph, did you look at the link I started this with?  I'd be interested to hear comments specifically on the economic parts since those are the most muddled to me.  It's easier to be afraid of a global depression because of complexities of currency than the tech since I too think that if our infrastructure stays good and we make a concerted effort, we'll probably manage the change OK.

Chris

[Valamir]

Ralph, did you look at the link I started this with? I'd be interested to hear comments specifically on the economic parts since those are the most muddled to me. It's easier to be afraid of a global depression because of complexities of currency than the tech since I too think that if our infrastructure stays good and we make a concerted effort, we'll probably manage the change OK.

The whole site is muddled.  The entire premise of it is absurd.  It sounds really scary...but then look at the source for his data "The association for the Study of Peak Oil".  Gee...that's convenient, what a surprise that "data" collected/massaged/invented by the Peak Oil nuts supports the Peak Oil story.

Give it five years...the exact same site will be there, but all the dates will have changed so that the end is always just around the corner.  I mean as soon as you get to the "why isn't the mainsteam media covering this" section you have proof positive that the guys a crackpot.  Because they'd start a panic?  What...every news organization in the world got together and agreed to not cover this story...everybody EXCEPT these guys...?  The very thought is ludicrous.  A media that loves to take pot shots at Bush would be all over a story like this...it would be the Big Oil Cover Up of the Century.

But no...only this small band of intrepid truth seekers dare to expose the danger to an unsuspecting public.

I mean, the site sounds convincing, he's done a decent job of not appearing like a hysterical lunatic...but Skully and Mulder investigated more plausible scenarios than this.  Its just repackaged "Repent For the End of the World is at Hand".  People stopped believing in comets and religious apocalypse...so now its energy...there's always been doom sayers out there.

But to answer your question on the economics a little bit...the fallacy of the guy's position becomes pretty clear when he starts talking about the effect on currency.

See the possibility of Oil being denomonated in Euros instead of dollars is another ripe source for doom prophets.  The scenario basically goes like this:  The world needs oil, oil is priced in dollars, so the world needs dollars to buy oil.  The demand for dollars to buy oil keeps the dollar as being a strong reliable currency.  If oil is no longer priced in dollars, demand will fall, the dollar will collapse, America will lose billions and oversees investors will yank money out of American markets in favor of markets priced in the now dominant Euro.  

The truth is that there will be some effects as currency pricing works itself out, and Russia has already started (or will soon) pricing its oil in Euros.  There will be some level of economic impact.  But then the doom and gloomers get a hold of it and a little bit of truth...a factor that analysts can take into account when making projections becomes a crisis of epic proportion.

So this guy, so desperate to make his case, throws that little crisis in on top of everything else.  I mean if he were right.  And oil were to suddenly become a huge crisis nearly overnight as he suggests...oh my god the food trucks can't even make it to Wal Mart we're all gonna starve...it'll be mass hysteria...then a) what the fuck difference will it make what the currency does...that's like the passengers on their way to lifeboats on the Titanic being worried that the galley's run out of caviar.  and b) how much sense does the world switching to Euro pricing make in such a scenario...like the US is the only country that uses oil.  Like while we're overhere reduced to eating our pets everything will be peachy keen in Europe?  If the worst were to happen, it would happen over there too...which means repricing in Euros would be pointless because their economy wouldn't be in any better shape than ours.

But he couldn't resist throwing another doom scenario onto the pile.

Really, and I don't mean to offend anyone who might be worried, but its utter nonsense.