Need help evaluating dice mechanics

[wyrdlyng]

Here's the link to my previous post about this project.
http://www.indie-rpgs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1725&highlight=

Now on the post...


I've refocused on "Fulcrum" (working title) and am considering dice mechanics but quite honestly, I'm not a mathematician. Here's what I'm thinking. Please let me know where my logic breaks down.

The dice mechanics is based on rolling a number of dice (currently working with d10s) equal to your Talent (the stats). The scale for Talents goes from 1 to 6, with 2 being an average stat.

You roll your dice and take the highest die roll. If it's above the Target Number you succeed. So, an average person would get 2 dice to roll and keep the higest. Simple so far.

(Btw, can anyone point me somewhere/tell me how to get the probabilities of multiple d10s rolling or beating numbers?)

Here's where it gets tricky. I wanted to show the possibility of luck playing a significant role and allowing for above average successes. So I was thinking of this: when you roll your dice for your Talent, if you roll doubles of a number then you get to add the value of the number rolled to your highest die roll.

Example, I am trying to kick open a locked door. I have a Brawn talent of 4 and roll 4 dice. I get a 7, 3, 3, 5. The 7 is my highest roll and I keep that number. Additionally, since I rolled double 3's, I get to add 3 to my highest rolled number for a total value of 10.

Example, I am trying to form a wall in a Dream. I have a Creativity talent of 3 and roll 3 dice. I get 6, 6, 2. The 6 is my highest roll and I keep that number. Additionally, since I rolled double 6's, I get to add 6 to my highest rolled number (even if my highest number is the one which I rolled doubles) for a total value of 12.

If you roll better than doubles then you get to add the value of the double again for each die beyond the first. Example, I roll 3 dice. I get a 5, 5, 5. I keep 5 because it is my highest. I add 5 for getting double 5's. And, I get to add another 5 for having rolled triples. So my total value comes out to 15.

Effectively this means that the higher your talent the greater the chance for extraordinary success.

(Can someone Sanity check my logic so far?)

Now for the next level of complexity. Which realm you are in has a direct effect on rolling doubles. On the Prime realm of Reality (our world and the parallel worlds) you roll, keep the highest and add the value of any doubles just as I have described above.

Quick Cosmology Refresher:

Potential-->Unreality/Dream-->Reality-->Nightmare/Chaos-->Negation

Moving into the realm of the Unreal/Dreams, you roll, keep the highest but the value of doubles is different. Here you add the value of the doubles once more. Meaning if you roll double 5's then you get to add them both (adding 10 to your highest roll). If you roll triple 4's, you get to add all three of them (adding 12 to your highest roll).

In the realm of Potential, you roll, keep the highest, follow the doubling policy of the Prime realm of Reality but you double the value. Meaning if you roll double 5's then you get to add 10 (the value of the double is 5, doubling that value is 10) to your highest. If you roll triple 4's, you get to add the two additional 4's that you rolled but you double the result (so you would add 8 to the highest roll).

Moving in the opposite cosmological direction, moving into the realm of Nightmare/Chaos you roll your dice, keep the highest but don't add anything for doubles. Yes, the realm is actively working against you and you can only rely on your innate talents.

Moving to Negation, you roll your dice and keep the average of the highest and lowest dice. Doubling has no additional effect.

One final caveat: rolls involving internal conflicts (Empathy and Focus talents) do not change doubling rules according to which realm you are on. They remain the same as on Prime Reality.

Okay, now is this way too complicated? Can someone throw this against a math book and see if my stab at logic is correct? What do you think?

[Jack Spencer Jr]

The dice mechanics is based on rolling a number of dice (currently working with d10s) equal to your Talent (the stats). The scale for Talents goes from 1 to 6, with 2 being an average stat.

Maybe it works but where are you getting these numbers from? why is there only one below average stat (1) and three above average stats? Something to think about, I guess.

Here's where it gets tricky. I wanted to show the possibility of luck playing a significant role and allowing for above average successes. So I was thinking of this: when you roll your dice for your Talent, if you roll doubles of a number then you get to add the value of the number rolled to your highest die roll.

better idea: how about a simple bonus?

using your example of rolling 7, 3, 3, 5. 7 is the highest roll and you roll one double for a +1 bonus for a total of 8. or maybe a +2 bonus for a total of 9. This way, if it was a roll of 7, 3, 3, 3, the bonus could be +3 (total 10)

I dunno.  Just an idea. but the doubles thing you had could wind up with much higher numbers. How much of a role do you want this bonus to play?

Another thing to think about: luck is already playing a role just in the simple dice rolling, right? What need is there for the bonus except than everyone else's RPG has some kind of critical hit rule and yours needs one too? Seriously.

Now for the next level of complexity. Which realm you are in has a direct effect on rolling doubles. On the Prime realm of Reality (our world and the parallel worlds) you roll, keep the highest and add the value of any doubles just as I have described above.

Quick Cosmology Refresher:

Potential-->Unreality/Dream-->Reality-->Nightmare/Chaos-->Negation
{snip}

Is it just me or is this just making the critical hit needlessly complicated?

One final caveat: rolls involving internal conflicts (Empathy and Focus talents) do not change doubling rules according to which realm you are on. They remain the same as on Prime Reality.

Why? Is this a way of saying that no matter what happens or where someone goes inwardly they remain unchanged? I disagree with this. Circumstance and environment change people all the time.

[Jake Norwood]

I really like your basic die mechanic--it's a lot of fun. My only reservation is that it's wildly chaotic. If that's what you're going for, then bravo. If not, then tone it down.

Jake
The Riddle of Steel

[wyrdlyng]

Maybe it works but where are you getting these numbers from? why is there only one below average stat (1) and three above average stats? Something to think about, I guess.

Characters in this setting are supposed to be above average to start. I realize that I didn't define this before but characters are chosen from all of humanity because they have the potential for greatness. In the Prime Reality they are able to pull off that funky stuff you saw in the Matrix. Against a normal person an Agent (the title for characters) will almost always win with little effort. The only serious threats to Agents are rogue Agents, agents of the opposing group, and the things which break into Prime Reality from Unreality and Chaos.

better idea: how about a simple bonus?

I thought about this but this would keep bonuses fairly small and on a d10 they would be negligible. Silhouette uses a similar method but utilizes a d6 and +1 or +2 means a lot more there.

Is it just me or is this just making the critical hit needlessly complicated?

Possibly. That's why I'm throwing this out for everyone to pick at.

One final caveat: rolls involving internal conflicts (Empathy and Focus talents) do not change doubling rules according to which realm you are on. They remain the same as on Prime Reality.

Why? Is this a way of saying that no matter what happens or where someone goes inwardly they remain unchanged? I disagree with this. Circumstance and environment change people all the time.

True but Empathy is your ability to relate to all of those folks who can't do what you can do. It's used for social situations. There's no reason why this would change with your environment.

And Focus is your ability to retain your concept of Self. In a way this talent is in constant use outside of Prime Reality or safe zones. It's a form of mental toughness which keeps you "together" when you're no longer dealing with the Reality you've known all your life.

I really like your basic die mechanic--it's a lot of fun. My only reservation is that it's wildly chaotic. If that's what you're going for, then bravo. If not, then tone it down.

It can be. I wanted to show the influence of being in realms of massive potential where thoughts manifest into local reality. Luck is always a factor when you roll dice but the doubling rules reflect the wild nature of the realm aiding or hindering you.

I have two other possible mechanisms in mind as well.

Alt 1: drop Target Numbers and make them all Opposed rolls. Highest total wins. The difference between the rolls determines level of success. If not acting directly against another sentient then you roll a number of dice determined by the Realm. 0 for Potential, 1 for Dream/Unreality, 2 for Prime Reality, 3 for Dream/Chaos, and 4 for Negation. This would retain the feel of Agents being superior to normal folks but evenly matched against their peers.

Alt 2: roll the dice of your Talent and get bonus or penalty dice depending on the realm you're in. +/- 0 in Prime Reality. +1 in Dream. +2 in Potential. -1 in Nightmare. -2 in Negation. These bonus/penalty dice are "Wild die" and are somewhat open-ended. If you roll a 10, roll again and add it to your previous roll. Repeat until you don't roll a 10. The difference is that these bonus/penalty dice would ALWAYS be added to your highest roll (using the roll and keep highest system from above, just drop the doubling rules). I also think that the open-ended effect would apply to the dice you roll for your Talents (a high roll of 10 would allow you to reroll 1 die and keep adding until you didn't roll a 10).

This second alt keeps the wide open range spread but make it harder to succeed in the hostile realms (which might not be a bad thing).

Any thoughts about these Alts?

[Mike Holmes]

Oh, sure when it's bad news, it's my job.

Sorry. Doesn't look too good. Your logic is all sound, but the ranges produced are ugly. Below are the odds of exceeding the Target number (that's how the rule is written; you didn't perhaps mean equal or exceed, did you? If so just shift the target numbers one column to the left) rolling a given number of dice. This ignores the "doubling" rules.

Code Select Expand


    Target Number
Dice 1         2         3         4         5         6         7         8         9
1    90.0000%  80.0000%  70.0000%  60.0000%  50.0000%  40.0000%  30.0000%  20.0000%  10.0000%
2    99.0000%  96.0000%  91.0000%  84.0000%  75.0000%  64.0000%  51.0000%  36.0000%  19.0000%
3    99.9000%  99.2000%  97.3000%  93.6000%  87.5000%  78.4000%  65.7000%  48.8000%  27.1000%
4    99.9900%  99.8400%  99.1900%  97.4400%  93.7500%  87.0400%  75.9900%  59.0400%  34.3900%
5    99.9990%  99.9680%  99.7570%  98.9760%  96.8750%  92.2240%  83.1930%  67.2320%  40.9510%
6    99.9999%  99.9936%  99.9271%  99.5904%  98.4375%  95.3344%  88.2351%  73.7856%  46.8559%

Anyhow, always look at the extremes. The worst person has no less than a 10% chance to perform the hardest task you can assign. A task that the greatest master has only a 47% chance to accomplish. That's not long odds for the wimp. OTOH, rolls against a diff od 1-3 are almost pointlessly simple.

Assuming that you are using a TN-Roll result = height of success method, the number of dice does drastically increase the likelihood of higher results. Your doubling thing, though, is the real breaker. A character with a stat of 1 can only get a 10 at most. A character with a stat of 2 can get a 20. Stat 3 =Max 30. Stat 4 = Max 40, etc. And that's in normal reality. Long odds to get these results, but when they do occur, they tend to be big. The result is that you either succeed by a few points, or you explode off the chart. The TN becomes relatively insignificant in determining the height of success. By the time you have six dice, the chances of rolling less than 10 total are slim, meaning that not only will the character almost always succeed, but they will succeed wildly.

I'd agree that you should drop the doubling and at most give +1s. Perhaps you could do doubling only in the Dream/Unreality zone, and the multiples in Potential.

Ever consider a roll for the opposition instead of a static target number? This would make it similar to Sorcerer, and aleviate some effects.

Mike

[wyrdlyng]

Cool. Thanks, Mike.

Looking over the table and running several scenarios through the dice blender has convinced me to ditch Target Numbers and go with opposed rolls.

So, revised base system:

Roll a number of d10s equal to your Talent against an opponent's relevant Talent. Keep the highest roll and add any doubled values (the first and simplified method mentioned at the top). Highest value wins. The difference between values determines level of success.

The difficulty which are not directly opposed would be determined by the Realm. This kind of translates into how much the realm opposes your efforts to bend local reality to your favor.

I was thinking of the following base # of dice:

The Potential - 0 dice (A realm where thoughts become local reality allows you to do just about anything if you're not directly affecting others.)

Unreality/Dream - 1 die (With the realm being only slightly influenced by the laws of our reality you can still get away with a lot.)

Prime Reality - 2 dice (The baseline. Normal folks would get 2 dice vs. 2 dice. Sometimes they can, sometimes they can't.)

Nightmare - 3 dice (Hostile realm focused on manifesting the darker sides of possiblity.)

Negation - 4 dice (The realm is trying to break creation into its component parts. It's actively working against your efforts to do anything but dissolve.)

Simple tasks don't merit rolling.
Easy tasks subtract 1 die from the Opposing roll.
Difficult tasks add +1 die to the Opposing roll.
Near Impossible tasks add +2 dice to the Opposing roll.

Does this system seem simpler? It still allows Agents to accomplish incredible feats in Prime Reality through their increased potential for doubles but makes a contest between Agents of similar power a lot closer.

Umm, so what does anyone think?

[Andrew Martin]

Does this system seem simpler? It still allows Agents to accomplish incredible feats in Prime Reality through their increased potential for doubles but makes a contest between Agents of similar power a lot closer.

Umm, so what does anyone think?

Why not use a balance point mechanic? For example if the PC Agent has power Level 10 and the Prime Reality resists with Power Level 1, that's 10:1 or 90% chance of success for the PC Agent. Versus an opposed Agent, of say Power Level 20, that's 10:20 or 1:2 or 33.3% chance of success for the PC Agent. Would those odds better reflect competence in the ordinary, and lack of competence versus enemy agents?

If not, could you give rough percentage figures of success/fail chances for the various realms, PC and enemy agents?