Is D20 Dead/Dying?

[Zachary The First]

This is one of those little blurbs you see all around fringe gaming sites on the Net--the claim that d20 is infirmed, dead, or dying.  Yet, according to WoTC, D&D had its best year ever last year (though Hasbro sure didn't).  Where is the proof in all this?  Am I missing something, or is saying "D20 is on the way out" sort of the RPG equivalent of folks in 1982 saying, "Printed/paper media is finished"?

Bottom line, is there any proof, or is this just sort of a upturned-nose, RPG snob, or mock-futurist thing to say?

Thanks!

[Remko]

Bottom line, is there any proof, or is this just sort of a upturned-nose, RPG snob, or mock-futurist thing to say?

I think this has been said a dozen times. Truth is: there is more D20 stuff available than any other commercial RPG (even GURPS), dozens of systems are rewritten to D20....


From my point of view, D20 isn't dying... There are just so much people who love to see it die.

[Larry L.]

I'm given to understand that very many groups are still playing OGL/D20 system based games. So I think it's certainly a viable platform on which to design a game. Just smack a D20 logo on there and somehow you get better shelf space.

...unless you're talking about WotC's sales figures or something, but I don't see how that's relevant to this forum.

[Zachary The First]

Indeed not.  I was referring to the platform as a whole.  It's seemingly in vogue in the corners of the web where I hang out to suggest that D&D is either a) stagnating the industry, b) dying a slow death, or c) both.  I certainly saw no rationale behind this, and thought I would defer to the wisdom of the board to see if I had missed something.  I personally just sort of shrugged it off as gamer snobishness or wishful thinking on someone's behalf, but figured it couldn't hurt to bring it up as a system discussion on here.

[Bankuei]

Hi Zach,

This isn't really system discussion, but rather, opinion discussion.  Once anything gets a minimum of attention, you will automatically get a group of rabid fans and rabid detractors.  In fact, they tend to breed each other, because either way, they always draw attention to their obsession, and other folks check it out wondering, "Is this really that good/bad?"

If you look up any GNS discussion outside the Forge, you can see a clear example of that in action.

Chris

[Zachary The First]

Hi Chris,

Sorry, I didn't see it as having to be an opinion discussion instead of a system one.  In fact, that's why I posted it on the Forge--because I thought we could have a mature discussion about it without flaming.  I've seen what happens on other boards w/ the topic, and thought The Forge was the one place where enough thoughtful industry and system analysis took place that things wouldn't degenerate in the manner you are suggesting they might.

I'm sorry if I caused any dissension in the ranks...if the thread is a problem, Powers That Be, by all means relegate to its place in the ossuary.

[timfire]

This issue has been discussed before. You should searching the Publishing forum. Here are a few threads of recent-ish memory:

d20 Appendix in a non-d20 Game
D20 not selling as well as original systems? [split]
Does anyone ever have reliable stats about the "industr

[Zachary The First]

Timefire,

Thanks!  I appreciate the help on the topic...and off a'searchin' I go.

[John Kim]

This is one of those little blurbs you see all around fringe gaming sites on the Net--the claim that d20 is infirmed, dead, or dying.  Yet, according to WoTC, D&D had its best year ever last year (though Hasbro sure didn't).  Where is the proof in all this?

Sorry, I didn't see it as having to be an opinion discussion instead of a system one.  In fact, that's why I posted it on the Forge--because I thought we could have a mature discussion about it without flaming.  I've seen what happens on other boards w/ the topic, and thought The Forge was the one place where enough thoughtful industry and system analysis took place that things wouldn't degenerate in the manner you are suggesting they might.

For the future, you should probably put this in the "Publishing" forum instead of "RPG Theory".  

If you haven't seen it, Ken Hite nicely reported http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=viewarticle&artid=133">State of the Industry 2004 in his "Out of the Box" column in March with lots of data from http://www.icv2.com">ICv2 and http://www.comicsretailer.com/">Comics & Games Retailer.  

So his rough numbers are that RPGs overall are significantly down 10-25% in 2004 compared to previous years.  Now, White Wolf and SJG have made slight gains with their new editions (World of Darkness 2.0 and GURPS 4th) compared to WotC, but it remains roughly stable in its dominance.  The leading companies among the smaller pack include Green Ronin and Mongoose, which have many D20 titles coming out.  One of the hopes for a non-D20 future, Guardians of Order, seems to be fading -- and HERO is tightening its belt.  Basically, while no one is especially healthy, I don't see any signs that D20 is dying, so I think you're right to regard that as myth.

[Bankuei]

Hi Zach,

No problem- its just that pretty much anyone will say anything on the internet- unless you see numbers(and, hopefully from a reliable source), it's hot air.  Even the concern about D20 is pretty much a fanboy concern unless you happen to be publishing a D20 product.  And if that's the case, the big concern becomes how to market your product to stand out from the rest, more than anything else.

Chris

[Mike Holmes]

Well, I do think that we're seeing one problem in the D20 market. The glut of products has, from what I recall hearing from some producers, made it hard for smaller D20 publishers to compete. This should be no surprise - basically more smaller publishers squabbling over the same sized pie. Meaning that there has been a contraction, already, of such producers.

I don't think this heralds the end of D20, so much as a normal expansion-contraction cycle of the businesses catering to it. I suspect that some people see these producers dissapearing, and assume mistakenly that it means the end.

Keep in mind that the companies that own D&D have suffered multiple bankruptcies, and this has not been the end of D&D play. The health of the companies producing for the game and it's subsidiary products, says very little about how many people play said games. Lots of folks play games from completely defunct game companies for systems that have no support from anywhere anymore. At this point, the volume of D20 material is so high that a person could play for years with what's out there now and never seem to run out of support, even if nobody ever produced another D20 supplement again.

So we're not very likely to see any D20 "death" any time soon, if ever.

Mike