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Topic: [tsoy] bonus dice statistical impact?
Started by: Rustin
Started on: 4/2/2007
Board: CRN Games


On 4/2/2007 at 9:54pm, Rustin wrote:
[tsoy] bonus dice statistical impact?

So with 3dF you have a 3.7% chance of getting a 3, an 11.11% of getting a 2, a 22.22 of getting a 1 and a 62.96% chance of getting  0.

How do the odds change with 1 bonus die? 2 bonus die? 3 bonus die etc...

Are these tables available somewhere? I just don't have the mathematical/statistical chops to figure it out. (or i'm just really lazy and my google skills failed me).

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On 4/2/2007 at 10:13pm, Hans wrote:
Re: [tsoy] bonus dice statistical impact?

It looks like crap, but here is the cut and paste from my own Excel spreadsheet, available on request.

Base Roll +1 Bonus +2 Bonus +3 Bonus -1 Penalty -2 Penalty -3 Penalty

3 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
2 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
1 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
0 26% 21% 15% 10% 21% 15% 10%
-1 22% 12% 6% 3% 27% 27% 23%
-2 11% 5% 2% 1% 22% 29% 31%
-3 4% 1% 0% 0% 11% 21% 32%

Untrained
0 63% 40% 23% 14% 81% 91% 96%
1 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
2 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
3 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
37% 60% 77% 86% 19% 9% 4%
Trained
0 37% 19% 9% 4% 60% 77% 86%
1 26% 21% 15% 10% 21% 15% 10%
2 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
3 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
4 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
63% 81% 91% 96% 40% 23% 14%
Expert
0 15% 6% 2% 1% 33% 50% 63%
1 22% 12% 6% 3% 27% 27% 23%
2 26% 21% 15% 10% 21% 15% 10%
3 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
4 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
5 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
85% 94% 98% 99% 67% 50% 37%
Master
0 4% 1% 0% 0% 11% 21% 32%
1 11% 5% 2% 1% 22% 29% 31%
2 22% 12% 6% 3% 27% 27% 23%
3 26% 21% 15% 10% 21% 15% 10%
4 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
5 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
6 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
96% 99% 100% 100% 89% 79% 68%
Grand Master
1 4% 1% 0% 0% 11% 21% 32%
2 11% 5% 2% 1% 22% 29% 31%
3 22% 12% 6% 3% 27% 27% 23%
4 26% 21% 15% 10% 21% 15% 10%
5 22% 27% 27% 23% 12% 6% 3%
6 11% 22% 29% 31% 5% 2% 1%
7 4% 11% 21% 32% 1% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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On 4/2/2007 at 10:14pm, Hans wrote:
RE: Re: [tsoy] bonus dice statistical impact?

The last line in each section above is the overall chance of greater than a zero result, btw.

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