Clinton recently said this in the Anvilwerks forum:

Clinton R. Nixon wrote:
* I think that the PDF market is going to bottom out in about six months. Atlas Games did a smart thing when they released Ars Magica for free. AEG managed to be the first on the bandwagon. In six months, when most of the industry gets on board with the "free PDF, costly hardcopy" idea, people will cease to buy PDFs. I can imagine how Atlas came to their decision, reading posts about why people do and don't buy PDFs on other forums. They don't lose a single customer by releasing it that way, and probably gain quite a few.

I'm not bitter about this, though: it's actually a good deed done, helping to get more information into more people's hands for less cost.

Hi Jonathan,

In many ways, I think your question is kind of knocked-sideways from the start. Markets aren't "made" to do anything unless one literally controls the means of promotion and distribution. By their very nature, on-line PDFs' distribution and promotion cannot be controlled, barring some sort of hideous internet innovation.

I don't think "sustaining" PDF market viability is an issue. The question is, rather, are they viable products, and if they aren't, what to do instead or how to make maximal use of them for selling something else.

Best,
Ron

Ron Edwards wrote: I don't think "sustaining" PDF market viability is an issue. The question is, rather, are they viable products, and if they aren't, what to do instead or how to make maximal use of them for selling something else.

Best,
Ron

quozl wrote:
Thank you Ron for the better wording. If I'm getting what you're saying right, please consider my question to be: Is this a danger? If so, what can we do now to insure the viability of PDF products?

Yeah, as someone whose plans are to have a pdf game for sale in the next five months, I was a bit shaken by Clinton's prediction when I read it this morning. My plan is for a micro-sized "convention edition" print run of My Life with Master, followed by pdf sales. If the bottom drops out of pdf games in six months and I don't get any pdf sales, I won't earn enough profit to pay myself back for my initial investment in artwork and printing costs.

Ron's viability comment though, that's some nice contrary food for thought. So I'm thinking. Viability determines whether people will pay for your game. But the question the becomes, what defines viability for a pdf game? And I'm thinking that utilization of the technical features of the pdf format is nice, but isn't necessary or sufficient. Why aren't Ars Magica and Deadlands viable, in the sense that their publishers can expect people to pay for them as pdf products? It can't be because they don't exploit the technical features of the format.

The idea that these games are intentionally being used for selling something else, supplements or whatever, is interesting to consider, but actually obfuscates the issue of viability. Am I to believe the publishers would be giving these core books away free if they as well as the individual titles that make up their product lines were all independently viable? No way. These two core books have either intrinsic lack of viability, or lack of viability aggravated by the context of their product line or something.

What do you think?

Paul

Here's my thought.

1. Presume that James' experiment with the POD version of The Questing Beast is a raving success - great quality, great price, reliable business. Both Paul, with My Life with Master, and I, with Trollbabe, are watching this experiment very carefully.

2. Presume that I (for instance) get rid of Trollbabe as a PDF entirely and instead keep a small stock on hand for fulfilment as a POD book. Presume as well that I find some way to handle fulfilment without driving myself insane.

3. So .... then, PDF stuff at the website becomes plentiful and free - character sheets, maps, pictures, supplementary material of all kinds, adventures, whatever.

3-prime. As above, but keep the Trollbabe PDF too, charging exactly the same as for the hard copy less shipping.

That doesn't sound like too bad of an idea ...

Best,
Ron

Paul Czege wrote: Why aren't Ars Magica and Deadlands viable, in the sense that their publishers can expect people to pay for them as pdf products? It can't be because they don't exploit the technical features of the format.

The idea that these games are intentionally being used for selling something else, supplements or whatever, is interesting to consider, but actually obfuscates the issue of viability. Am I to believe the publishers would be giving these core books away free if they as well as the individual titles that make up their product lines were all independently viable? No way. These two core books have either intrinsic lack of viability, or lack of viability aggravated by the context of their product line or something.

What do you think?

Clinton R. Nixon wrote: First, I think I was quoted well out of context.

Hey Ron,

I wasn't aware that James was planning a POD version of The Questing Beast. POD ala RPGnow, to my understanding, incorporates fulfillment. Last I heard he was looking at a small print run using Berryville, and was planning to do his own fulfillment just like he does with ROCG. Perhaps his plans have changed.

Presume that I (for instance) get rid of Trollbabe as a PDF entirely and instead keep a small stock on hand for fulfilment as a POD book.....then, PDF stuff at the website becomes plentiful and free - character sheets, maps, pictures, supplementary material of all kinds, adventures, whatever.

But that's just format. You're the one that raised the idea of viability. I think there's a correspondence between format and viability, in that print products are often more desirable, but there's certainly not a correlation. Otherwise Ars Magica wouldn't now be a free pdf. I'm confused by your second post because now you're talking about how to react to Clinton's predicted customer disinterest in the pdf format by changing the format. And sure, that's an option, but in your first post I thought you were suggesting the disinterest was unrelated to format..."are they viable products" was referring to pdfs, not specifically to Ars Magica and Deadlands?

Paul

I think that the fact that these are older, established lines whose expenses have (presumably) been paid is a huge factor that cannot be overlooked.

When Atlas, et al, start releasing free, 250 pp. NEW games, then I'll really start to sweat. I believe people most of us Forge folks market to will continue to pay for new, compelling games because they can't get it anywhere else. The innovation, the newness, and the exclusivity make these games viable. Naturally, the limitation is that the market is relatively meager.

But, in that sense, having "real" games released in this way on PDF and catching lots of attention for it could very conceivably HELP us expand that market because, plainly, people are that much more likely to accept games as PDF / electronic products. "Hey, if Deadlands is on PDF, maybe all my paranoia is for nothing. This is kinda useful and neato. Hey, what's this Paladin thingy? .... "

Hello everybody,

Just want to put my 2 cents in it....

Finally the rpg computer product (pdf files) gets in the computer jumpwagon!! What I mean is that it's an old marketing scheme in the computer area. It had been there for a long time with computer software: you give an old version with hope that people will buy the new one.

Can it work with rpg?!?! I think it's going to be exactly the same way with free software: you will keep the free pdf file but never buy the new book. You'll do with with what you have in your hands.

Is this a danger?!? I don't think so. How can we sustain the pdf market? Humm... only produce pdf!!! If we keep the price low and if our game, supplement or whatever is only available in pdf format then if somebody really want it he will buy it!

Can it help selling something else? I'm really not sure. If you give ars magica 4 when ars magica 5 is out then why people will bother to buy old supplements?!

I maybe wrong but I'm just trying to understand the motives behind this move.

That's it!

Patrick

I think the doom and gloom is unwarranted. Might there be a PDF cost adjustment from this? Maybe, but even that's not certain. I think a five buck PDF will remain a five buck PDF.

Mike

For what it's worth, several of my friends have gone to RPG Now to get free Ars Magica and ended up poking around while they were there. In chemistry there's the concept of activation energy, the hump you have to get over from this state to that one. That one may be lower-energy than where you are now, but you can't just slide straight down; you have to get over the hill first. The presence of a game that is both well-known or at least widely discussed and free gets people over the hump to check out RPG Now. Once they're there, they poke around.

So I suspect that the end result of this will be a relatively small but useful boost for the folks publishing PDF only or PDF primarily.

Howdy, all--

I can't really comment on the commercial viability of the PDF-as-precursor-to-print-release process, since I'm not doing anything of the sort.

My focus right now is solely on PDFs for PDF's sake. The data I have to offer might be skewed by the fact that I work extensively with the d20 system, for which (despite all rumors to the contrary) there is still a very viable market provided you know what the heck you're doing. A flood of poorly-written crap can't drown out interest in decently conceived and written products. If it could, I wouldn't be in business-- but reflect on the fact that I am now making a *full-time living* exclusively from the sale of PDFs.

The biggest surprise of the past few months has, for me, been RPGnow. I put *The Book of Distinctions & Drawbacks* up for sale there as a test, having already sold 100+ off my own website in just two days. Consider that the BODD required four solid days of work to put together, so I was already well-paid for said week. Imagine my surprise when I sold another 150+ copies on RPGnow in a month and a half (those looking at RPGnow might be interested to discover that even that volume of sales hasn't yet broken it into the top 50 all-time sellers).

I've put a total of 5 PDFs on the market since July of '02, and so far only one has been placed on RPGnow.com. My rough sales figures to date are:

*Deeds Not Words:* Just cresting 300 units sold
*The Book of Distinctions & Drawbacks:* Just past 275 units sold
Three other books: Combined sales of 400+

I am extremely skeptical of any claim that the market I depend on is going to "bottom out" as a result of any of the actions or influences described in this thread. My optimism is based in large part on the PDF format and my business model itself-- I have no warehouse or shipping overhead costs, no need to deal with distribution chains, no employees save freelance artists, no schedule to work to save my own, and an extreme degree of flexibility with my products. It's conceivable that a PDF micropublisher like me could discern a market trend or spot an unfilled nice and respond to it in a matter of two or three weeks. As I said, the BODD was a four-day project. It started as a for-fun 8-page handout and evolved into a for-sale 45-pager in just that time. When skilled writers and designers (I'm no schlub, but there are also folks out there like Monte Cook and Philip J. Reed whose production values far exceed my own, and I'm sure they could be as fleet-of-finger if required) can steer a new course in a very intimate and feedback-rich market five to ten times faster than print publishers can in theirs, it's going to take a serious shock to render that market unviable for them. Right now, for example, you'd really have to take out RPGnow.com to drive me back to a day job, and it's possible in even a few months that they won't represent the majority of my ongoing income. We'll see-- not that I'm not enjoying my partnership with them immensely. ;)

Then again, as I said-- I'm a d20 guy and most of the people reading this forum aren't. My business, if affected at all by 2500+ downloads of *Ars Magica 4th,* can only be positively affected as a result of more exposure of my books to new RPGnow visitors. The number of total sales I need to make to pay the rent, keep food on the table, and pay my artists is simply too small, relatively speaking, for me to play by the same rules as most other publishers, expecially those with a print release schedule. Rather like a cockroach, Cryptosnark is, small and stealthy and hard to eradicate.

So take everything I have to say with a grain of salt. I a) play by different rules than most publishers and I b) sell a certain set of rules that not everyone hereabouts approves of. My experiences might not apply for anyone else, but there they are nonetheless.

Cheers,

SL

It occurs to me that I might not have adequately and specifically dealt with Clinton's original "worry," which is at second glance a great deal more solid and astute than it first seemed. Now that I grok in fullness, let me add a bit.

I think that the PDF market is going to bottom out in about six months. Atlas Games did a smart thing when they released Ars Magica for free. AEG managed to be the first on the bandwagon. In six months, when most of the industry gets on board with the "free PDF, costly hardcopy" idea, people will cease to buy PDFs. I can imagine how Atlas came to their decision, reading posts about why people do and don't buy PDFs on other forums. They don't lose a single customer by releasing it that way, and probably gain quite a few.

So, if I read you correctly, Clinton, the possibility exists that free, complete PDF releases of "big company" print material might become something of an industry standard rather than an aberration, at least among the folks for whom an extra few hundred sales would be celebrated rather than footnoted.

I can see what you're getting at, but I just can't see it having any effect on the "cockroaches" like myself and at least a few others. Individuals and companies continuing to produce unique and/or quality (the two traits are not necessarily *both* required for success) commercial PDFs, and filling or expanding upon niches that the print companies can't devote the time and resources to, should continue to flourish at their own relatively "little" level of success.

I also can't see it having a negative effect on what most of the folks here produce, either. If I might put forward an argument, it's that potential PDF customers are predominantly content-driven rather than medium-driven. That is, if there's a commercial PDF that they want, they'll buy it as long as there's no free alternative... in fact, sometimes they'll buy it even if there is. My experience tells me that someone willing to spend money on a PDF would view a free PDF on the same subject as a bonus rather than a replacement for the commercial PDF that caught their eye. The D&D community council puts out free netbooks of d20 feats up the yin-yang, yet commercial PDF books of feats and character classes continue to perform rather well at RPGnow.com.

For another specific example-- the "Paragon" d20 supers system is free, but I'd say that *Deeds Not Words* is several times more popular, at least, and certainly has a much more flourishing web community.

Lastly, we need to check our definitions of "competition." Is octaNe in "competition" with *ShadowRun?* Is *Donjon* in "competition" with *Deadlands?* Hell, I'd go so far as to argue that *Deeds Not Words* isn't even properly in "competition" with Mutants & Masterminds and Silver Age Sentinels, since each fills such a different niche and I play by such different rules of business success.

We are all, ultimately, in competition for the finite number of dollars potential customers can spend every month, but excepting only that, how can the free release of, say, *AD&D 2nd edition* in PDF or *Earthdawn* in PDF adversely affect anyone hereabouts not working with IP that closely mimics or corresponds to those properties?

Cheers,

SL

P.S. Obviously, I am not oracular. If I were, I'd quit the writing shtick and make my living selling you all the times and dates of your own impending deaths for just $49.95 a pop. As lame as it sounds, time will tell either way, eh? Let's revisit this topic and see what's happening in September '03.

Scott,

That was an exceptionally well-written argument. You've just about changed my mind.

And Deeds not Words is great, by the way. If you ever want to write an article on how you made PDF publishing into a full time job, I'd really like you to submit it here.

Best,
Clinton

Clinton wrote:

That was an exceptionally well-written argument. You've just about changed my mind.

You're most gracious, Clinton. I'll try to be the same way if I'm suddenly back to chopping salads for most of my living six months hence. ;)

And Deeds not Words is great, by the way. If you ever want to write an article on how you made PDF publishing into a full time job, I'd really like you to submit it here.

Thanks! I hope that DNW Revision 1.1 (long in coming, finally finished, now awaiting a last few pieces of art) will fix a great many of DNW's mechanical problems and needless limitations.

If you'd really like to hear me blather about the Cryptosnark , I think just after this coming GenCon would be a natural time for me to do so. I'll be attending GenCon precisely one year after Cryptosnark really went into business.

Cheers!

SL

Hi Scott,

Welcome! Couple of points that might surprise you ...

1. Your point about competition, or the lack thereof, is shared by many of the folks here. In fact, cross-promotion among RPGs is widely practiced among those of us who've gone into commerce.

2. You seem to be treading cautiously regarding D20. The Forge isn't an "anti-D20" site, and there ain't no reason to expect disapproval or even any kind of consensus about it. Any insights and practices that you'd care to share about your publishing and design are welcome here, and you won't meet any rejection based on D20 in and of itself.

Best,
Ron

Scott - yeah, what Ron and Clinton said!

This isn't just a me-too post, hopefully. I'd been following this thread with growing concern. I frickin' love the concept of PDF publication, and aspire to possibly do it myself one day. Your comments and observations have cheered me up immensely. Furthermore, I wish to go on record as being heartilly interested in hearing you "blather about the Cryptosnark."

Ron wrote:

2. You seem to be treading cautiously regarding D20. The Forge isn't an "anti-D20" site, and there ain't no reason to expect disapproval or even any kind of consensus about it. Any insights and practices that you'd care to share about your publishing and design are welcome here, and you won't meet any rejection based on D20 in and of itself.

Howdy, Ron-- but I was under the clear impression that the Forge was a haven for anti-American hooligans out to pollute our precious bodily fluids by denying the d20 system its true and deserved place of esteem!

Or maybe I heard that you were all pawns of the Gnomes of Zurich. It's so hard to keep internet bunkum straight.

Cheers and best,

SL

Well, not everyone here likes d20, of course, but the moderating here on the Forge keeps the "my hat for d02 know no limit" comments to a minimum. That is, the membership here knows it is best to not comment in a thread you have nothing to add to.

Scott_Lynch wrote: but reflect on the fact that I am now making a *full-time living* exclusively from the sale of PDFs.

{snip}

I've put a total of 5 PDFs on the market since July of '02, and so far only one has been placed on RPGnow.com. My rough sales figures to date are:

*Deeds Not Words:* Just cresting 300 units sold
*The Book of Distinctions & Drawbacks:* Just past 275 units sold
Three other books: Combined sales of 400+

GMS wrote:

You're claiming a full-time income from PDF, right? According to the figures you site above, you've sold roughly 1000 units since July. Checking your site, I see that most of your releases cost $5, with DNW costing $10. So, based on that, you're looking at approximately $6500 in sales over 8 months. If you keep on track, that would be $812.50/month or $9750 per annum....or $109 *below* the federally-set poverty-level for a single adult below the age of 65.

Am I missing something, or is that not anything remotely close to "making a full-time living"?

Let me provide a more complete picture: $7,500 income in later 2002 from work as a prep cook, + $2,400 from freelance writing, editing, and ghostwriting. Also, half the PDF sales mentioned in my last post have taken place in the past *two months*-- there has been a disproportionate surge of late, not an even spread since July '02.

Given that my marketing has been half-assed and the suck factor of my website is rather high, my (reasonable, I hope) conclusion was that re-dedication to a better website and better marketing, along with more time spent actually writing, could produce continued healthy sales because of my selling habits rather than in spite of them.

Also, note that when I say that I am "now making a full-time living off this," I mean "I resigned from my day job a week and a half ago." I've been continually explaining my living and writing situation since then to umpteen bazillion people who all ask "Dude, cool-- so when's your novel coming out?" and perhaps I've gotten a bit un-punctillious with the particulars.

I was steadily decreasing the number of hours spent working as a prep cook from January-March until my resignation, and for the past two months, PDFs have been my bread and butter, not to mention my rent and insurance. I have a considerable financial pillow left over from 2002 earnings in case of disaster or disruption, but everything now coming in is a direct result of PDF sales. Without them, I cannot live without a "day job." With them as they are, I can get by on nothing else. With them as they should be, receiving my full-time attention, I expect to do better than "get by."

Also, take note-- I'm 24, long-term relationship but unmarried, no children. No car, no bus pass-- I use mountain bike and/or feet to get around the Twin Cities. No nasty habits-- no drugs, no smoking, minimal drinking. No expensive miniatures hobbies or other game addicitons. I live in an area of cheap rent and real estate and receive a break on my rent for property maintenance. A level of income that would be quite unacceptable for you and the family you have to support (especially where you live) would be rather extravagant for me-- the highest annual income I've yet posted was $18,500 or so back in 1999. Ergo, what I define as "full-time income" is anything above $14,000 for the time being. I expect to do rather better than that this year, but even assuming I don't, the prospect of writing 40 hours a week on my own schedule for that $14,000 is rather more attractive than chopping salads for the same annual income.

So, while the full picture has to include a bit more data, PDFs are the only reason I'm not currently chopping salads.

Cheers,

SL

I'm sorry, I just reviewed my earlier post, the one you questioned. For the word *exclusively* your should read *primarily,* and please pardon my mistake. I think it's what you might call a "typo" or a "braino." My intent was to say that PDFs are the absolute cornerstone of my income, but that I have made and retain quite a bit of cash from other sources. I spank myself for a dumbass.

Cheers,

SL

GMSkarka wrote: If you keep on track, that would be $812.50/month or $9750 per annum....or $109 *below* the federally-set poverty-level for a single adult below the age of 65.

Am I missing something, or is that not anything remotely close to "making a full-time living"?

While this is something I would like to do, I don't see it happening (in the near or distant future). The Austin area isn't cheap and I tend to enjoy new things and a nice car. While last month's $1,286 in PDF sales (after RPGNow's percentage) is a very nice extra bit of income it is not enough for me to survive at the comfort level I wish to live at.

I could easily see where a person could make their living writing and releasing PDFs. But not me. At least, not at this time.

The key, I think, to living off of PDF sales is your location. For many years I and my wife lived off of the $800 a month I made at the time while she went to school. It wasn't easy and I had to be very careful with the money but we survived.

Maybe I can make enough money from PDF sales to buy the nuclear missile silo I want. Maybe then I could cut expenses low enough to make PDF sales my living. But not at this time.

Scott_Lynch wrote: . For the word *exclusively* you should read *primarily,*

philreed wrote: The key, I think, to living off of PDF sales is your location.

GMSkarka wrote: In short, I've decided that being happy in my work and comfortable in my quality of life means more to me than being miserable in my work and affluent in my quality of life.