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This topic is split from "D20 appendix in a non D20 book".

Quote from: jdagnaFrom what I hear, D20 books are selling less well than original systems (assuming publishers of the same size, etc). So there's obviously a shrinking market.

Really?

Has anyone got any figures to back this up, or is it FLGS backroom gossip?

It's flawed thinking. WoD 2.0 and GURPS 4th were obviously big sellers, so it might look like non-d20 stuff is doing better. Paranoia also did pretty well, but again that's an established game with a new edition.

But in terms of new games, d20 based games continue to do better than non-d20 ones. You can't really find a new, successful, mainstream non-d20 title out there.

For a while, my prediction has been that the d20 license will slowly choke off the bookstore/game store market for new, non-d20 RPGs. I haven't seen anything to contradict that.

d20 publishers, OTOH, are a different kettle of fish. A lot of them never had a long-term business plan, particular when it comes to the question "So what do we publish next?" I think that's starting to hurt a lot of people.

A lot of them never had any ambition beyond publishing what the founder had in mind when he started; that done, some flounder trying to find new product, and some happily close up shop, having accomplished what they wanted to accomplish.

And some have found new lines to pursue.

In a sense, it is gossip because I don't have a lot of solid numbers to back it up.  It is based off of sentiments shared by a variety of industry people.  And, what I said was filtered specifically for the topic at hand.

I'd boil down what I've heard as follows:

The D20 market is definitely large and healthy, but only because WotC is large and healthy.  It takes up the vast majority of D20 sales.  There are no real opportunities for small publishers there (at least in a distribution and retail environment - the PDF market may be a whole other thing).   In fact, I think it should almost be mandatary to speak of WotC/D&D products separately from "the D20 market" because they obviously have a unique niche there.

The non-D20 market is in questionable shape depending on who you ask.  Certainly once you take GURPS, WW and Palladium out, there's not much left.  But, the sentiment seems to be that new small publishers have more opportunities here than in the D20 market.

In terms of sales numbers, last year we were hearing that non-D20 games would probably sell 500 and D20 games would probably sell 1100.  But the projections I'm seeing now put the D20 games down to 300-500.  I know (from experience) that you can sell that many even without distribution and retail, so it's fair to say (at the very least) that D20 games do not have any advantage over non-D20 at the entry level of the market.

(These numbers come from http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?t=162443 though it isn't the only place I've seen similar estimates)

So, in summary, when I say D20 is a "shrinking market," I mean specifically that the opportunities for new companies are shrinking.  The days of just anyone putting out their homebrew campaign and seeing 1500 sales and wide distribution are long over.

So perhaps what's going on is that the existing publishers (Bastion, ENWorld, Malhavoc, etc) have solidified their presence, and there isn't as much room for a new publisher.

From my information (people with inside contacts at WotC, etc.) the entire RPG market, indie and corporate, has undergone a 20% contraction since the beginning of the war in Iraq, because so many soldiers are avid RPGers.

Quote from: VaxalonFrom my information (people with inside contacts at WotC, etc.) the entire RPG market, indie and corporate, has undergone a 20% contraction since the beginning of the war in Iraq, because so many soldiers are avid RPGers.

Hmm, that's a higher percentage than I would have guessed. Interesting!

Anecdotal evidence suggests that active military duty tends to create roleplayers; one of our founders, Brian Stith, said that when his unit was in Kosovo, a number of guys started roleplaying who never would have otherwise, out of boredom and the desire to spend some time in a different world, and then really got into it.

Our donation of books to the Baghdad Hobby Club was motivated by Brian's experience & the knowledge that it would find a welcome audience; we're hoping they'll all come home safely to become good customers again!

The attraction is pretty simple.

When you're deployed to some third-world country, or out in the boonies, and you're sitting around waiting for orders, you can't engage in a lot of the entertainments that these boys are used to.  

You can't play sports, there's not enough room to move around, and besides the open ground isn't secure.

You can't play computer games or console games, there's no gear and no power.

One guy with a gamebook and a pad of paper, a few dice, a good imagination and you're golden.  The weight and volume requirement can be quite minimal.

The problem is, when you're out in the boonies, there's no GAME stores.  You can't mail order, you can't Amazon, you're stuck with what you got until you get home.

I expect that sales are going to spike bigtime when the boys come home.

Well Vax, you have some valid points that I would agree with, but its not as bad as you would think.

Heres a pic of my D&D books, dice, and internet... its not much of an office or desk, but it works ;)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v281/gameworldinteractive/roleplay_soldier.jpg

To better address my point, Tzu, are you able to mail-order new books?