d20 Will it go the distance? (skylarking)

[Jack Spencer Jr]

OK, d20 has been around now for, what? two years or so? The question before the panel now is, will is still be around after ten years or will d20 fade away and only D&D remain, if that? Now we can all get pretty wild with this, like a meteor crashing into WotC HQ and stuff, so let's try to keep the speculation down-to-earth, OK?

[Cassidy]

I don't get the impression that WotC are in this to make a fast buck. I think they are in it for the long haul.

Most of the d20 stuff I have seen looks very well polished and WotC have done an excellent job of promoting the product and getting other publishers to produce their own d20 titles.

Will it last? Yeah I think it could, why not. Role-players may be a fickle bunch but I think that d20 has gained a level of support from players that should keep it profitable for WotC.

I don't know how profitable d20 is for WotC or what their sales targets are but so long as they are making money and hitting targets then it's in their interest to keep pushing d20.

If new d20 settings keep on hitting the shelves and players keep on buying product then there is no reason why d20 won't continue.

It's feasible that the d20 bubble will burst at some point and I'm sure that WotC would take that as an ideal time to bring out d20 2nd Edition, rejuvinate interest in the product and start the sales cycle again.

[Jeffrey Miller]

Will it last? Yeah I think it could, why not. Role-players may be a fickle bunch but I think that d20 has gained a level of support from players that should keep it profitable for WotC.

Is d20 really enjoying a certain amount of support from its fans because its a game that serves them well, or because it serves them well-enough?

Is d20 surviving merely by coopting its competition?

Is the gaming market served by the current crop of major "mainstream" game lines?

It's feasible that the d20 bubble will burst at some point and I'm sure that WotC would take that as an ideal time to bring out d20 2nd Edition, rejuvinate interest in the product and start the sales cycle again.

D&D 3.25 is coming out sooner than you think..

[Ron Edwards]

Hello,

There are two questions here: one of publishing and business, and one of use and play.

Regarding publishing, I think the bubble burst a while ago. The only reasons that's not common knowledge are (a) that distributors carry disproportionate influence in the three-tier system, and (b) that retailers are more interested in moving what they've ordered already than cutting their losses. Just because you see lots of D20 on the shelves doesn't mean people are making money from it.

Regarding use and play, I think that D20 is here to stay - in exactly the same sense that GURPS and Fudge are around, as generic templates with specific local features that serve certain specific needs. I don't think it's special either for positive or negative in these terms.

(Note: I'm treating D20 here as a customizable system, usable via the OGL for publishing and playing stuff; I'm not talking about D&D at all.)

Best,
Ron

[Matt Wilson]

Regarding use and play, I think that D20 is here to stay - in exactly the same sense that GURPS and Fudge are around, as generic templates with specific local features that serve certain specific needs. I don't think it's special either for positive or negative in these terms.

In that light I can imagine WotC doing d20 versions of all the GURPS versions of all the other games.

I wonder, though, if GURPS is gaining many new players, or if it's just holding current players. I know a lot of players who went through a "GURPS phase," but it didn't last. I think if d20 doesn't have that effect, it'll be because d20 has the ubiquitous presence of D&D as its flagship.

[Jeffrey Miller]

I wonder, though, if GURPS is gaining many new players, or if it's just holding current players. I know a lot of players who went through a "GURPS phase," but it didn't last. I think if d20 doesn't have that effect, it'll be because d20 has the ubiquitous presence of D&D as its flagship.

Anecdotally I've heard that GURPS stays around on the strength of sales of the source books to the general RPG audience, not on sales to active GURPS gamers per se.

[Eric J.]

To answer the first question:

Yes, I think that D20's here to stay.  Few things in role playing games have matched the conteraversy that D20 has created.  Why would that indicate long range succecc?  Because it's the system that thousands of people have started learning with (Pyron sheepishly raises his hand).  It is being promoted by the bigest game company in the world, and it's system type are being transferred to every available genre.  Will there be a new D&D system to replace it?  If the sun shines on the horizon untill that day, it will.  My point of view is that as sucessful/unsuccecful as it may become, it has already dove deep into webcomics, forum discussions, and gaming groups.  

Even if  D20 products are never played in the future there will still be people who go into dusty gaming stores, and look around.  In the corner will be a large yellow paged book that says Star Wars D20 REVISED on it, and that aged gamer will smile bring the tome to the counter and ask, "How much?"

The clerc will say, "Oh, I don't seem to have, recorded, the price on that object.  I'll take 15 dollers for it, though"

The gamer will hand him the cash and smile.

"Do you have friends lined up to play that with, lad?" the man will ask.

"No.  I just want this book to remember the good old days."

The clerk will have to smile.

[Ozymandias]

I wonder, though, if GURPS is gaining many new players, or if it's just holding current players. I know a lot of players who went through a "GURPS phase," but it didn't last. I think if d20 doesn't have that effect, it'll be because d20 has the ubiquitous presence of D&D as its flagship.

There are a couple of reasons why d20 should prove to have more staying power than previous multi-genre systems such as GURPS. The first, and primary, one you've already got. It's the system behind D&D, which is by leaps and bound the most bought and most played RPG. But I don't think thats the only reason. You also have the fact that when adapting d20 to a new genre, one can re-tool any part of the system they want rather than just providing a plug-in for the already existing rule set. (ie: GURPS Supers v. Mutants & Masterminds, SASd20, or Godlike OGL) This means the system, rather than remaining a static entity which may or may not be occassional updated by the single company that owns it, the d20 system can be constantly reinterpreted and reinvented by each person utilizing it for game design.

As for the bubble having burst, I'm not sure it's quite so simple as that. Based upon what I see posted various places by people who are actually publishing d20 games, and through conversing with employees and my two fairly good sized FLGS: Good products designed for the d20 system are still selling extremely well, Crap products aren't selling at all. I'm not sure therefore this is so much a case of a bubble bursting as it is the consumer simply becoming more discriminating. (As side note: Another weird effect I've noticed locally about d20, is that the clerks at both the FLGS I frequent seem much better educated about upcoming and recent releases for d20 than they ever have about anything in my 10 years shopping there. Both stores even had Mutants and Masterminds placed amoungst the d20 releases even without it having the d20 logo on it.)

[Jack Spencer Jr]

This means the system, rather than remaining a static entity which may or may not be occassional updated by the single company that owns it, the d20 system can be constantly reinterpreted and reinvented by each person utilizing it for game design.

This is an interesting point, although it does not make d20 unique since this is how FUDGE works, isn't it?

As for the bubble having burst, ... Good products designed for the d20 system are still selling extremely well, Crap products aren't selling at all. I'm not sure therefore this is so much a case of a bubble bursting as it is the consumer simply becoming more discriminating.

That would be the bubble bursting, then. The bubble is that anything with "d20" on it will automatically make money. This is not true. And that is as it should be (barring, of course, everything with d20 on it being a work of quality)

[xiombarg]

This is an interesting point, although it does not make d20 unique since this is how FUDGE works, isn't it?

FUDGE is more explicit about it, tho. You know "out of the box" it's something to be monkeyed with. I'm not sure that's the case with d20, tho maybe there will be something about it in the updated Core Rulebooks WoTC is releasing. (We can only hope.)

Not that you have to have text pointing out you can monkey with it for d20 to work well that way, just that it may affect d20 marketing, and end-user cynicism.

[Thierry Michel]

Of course the real question is the long-term impact on the dice industry.

[Kester Pelagius]

Greetings eogan,

Is d20 surviving merely by coopting its competition?

It's already co-opted it, hasn't it?

I mean the entire d20 thing was pretty slick(*), considering I can probably name half a dozen systems that used the d20 as it's primary die and resolution mechanic... while TSR was still around.  Many of which were *very* close to the TSR resolution system in some part, but never wholly a direct rip-off.  Just slightly derivative.

The folks at WoTC, in my uninformed opinion, tried to lay claim to the Brooklyn Bridge by saying they owned it and asking everyone who used it to affirm their rights to ownership.  Which seems to have happened.  Now, I would imagine, there are no "competitor" systems using a d20 system mechanic.   Or are there?

Hmm, I suppose one should also ask :

If you, as a game designer wanting to see your work published, were going to create a system would you want to design a new resolution system from the ground up, or just use d20 as a compromise and quickie short-cut?  And why?


Kind Regards,

Kester Pelagius

small edit

* "slick" in the sense they managed to assert their rights without trying to sue everyone in sight over trivial usage of what some may not consider to be proprietary, though most corporations probably would.

[Ozymandias]

This is an interesting point, although it does not make d20 unique since this is how FUDGE works, isn't it?

Sort of. The difference being that with FUDGE you don't ever really have ownership over a product created for that system. Steffan O'Sullivan could withdraw his permission at any time, leaving a designer completely out of luck. On the other hand, once something is released under the OGL it can't be taken back. This encourages people put their time and resources into working with it.

That would be the bubble bursting, then. The bubble is that anything with "d20" on it will automatically make money. This is not true. And that is as it should be (barring, of course, everything with d20 on it being a work of quality)

My misunderstanding then. I had thought that "the bubble" referred to d20 products generally outperforming other RPG products.

[Ozymandias]

The folks at WoTC, in my uninformed opinion, tried to lay claim to the Brooklyn Bridge by saying they owned it and asking everyone who used it to affirm their rights to ownership.  Which seems to have happened.  Now, I would imagine, there are no "competitor" systems using a d20 system mechanic.   Or are there?

Unless something has changed very recently, WotC has never claimed any sort of ownership over having a system which utilizes a d20 for it's resolution mechanic. (And really there's no way they could, you can't copyright or trademark the act of rolling a d20 and comparing it to tables or adding and subtracting numbers to it.) What they claim ownership of are a copyright on the full set of rules which comprise the d20 system as found in their various publications and a trademark on that square red/white/black d20 logo. That's really pretty much it. You could create a system which uses a d20 and even most likely refer to it as "a d20 based system" you just can't go around calling it THE D20 SYSTEM or using a logo that looks too close to WotCs.

The only game I can think of offhand that uses d20s though would be Fading Suns.

If you, as a game designer wanting to see your work published, were going to create a system would you want to design a new resolution system from the ground up, or just use d20 as a compromise and quickie short-cut?  And why?

I would and am using the OGL as a basis for a project I'm working on. I think it provides a great baseline for gamist type system and allows you to focus on tweaking and improving the details rather than having to build something new from the ground up.

[Ron Edwards]

Hello,

Oh, my friends! Hero Wars (now Hero Quest) utilizes a D20 to brilliant and distinctive effect. It was published in 2000. I think it's clear that using a d20 in one's system and being a D20 game are two different things.

(I dunno why I keep using a capital D for D20 as a system. Totally arbitrary, don't mean nothin' by it.)

Let's talk about bubbles, and about "performance." Publishers get their money from distributors, and they have a widespread, and fatal, tendency to equate sales to distributors with sales to customers. They also tend, just as fatally, to equate sales to customers as sustained and interested potential future sales. Neither of these is valid.

Right now, this minute, retailers across the land are sick to death of D20 products. They're piled up on the shelves. They don't ... fucking ... sell.  (Shock! What is he saying! Obviously doesn't know what he's talking about.)

But this doesn't get communicated for two reasons.

1) Retailers need to move their currently-owned product, badly. Almost all retailers buy on margin, which means that anything that doesn't sell is a dead loss, and an ongoing dead loss. Hence, they do what they can to move it, up to and including insisting that it's "hot," and even believing it.

2) Distributors exert a great deal of power and pressure when it comes to retailers ordering role-playing games. You may think that consumer demand drives retailer orders, and that those retailer orders drive distributor orders, but in reality, the reverse is largely true ... with the predictable proviso that customers usually don't cooperate, leaving retailers staring glumy at loaded shelves.

I am saying that the perceived amazing performance of D20, as a game product over the long term, is a strict and solitary function of retailers listening to distributor (and certain promoters') blandishments. Lots of hype and enthusiasm, and lots of distributor ordering = tons of games on the shelves.

The RPG marketplace takes time to be expressed, which is all the more subtle because everyone involved insists on using a comics model (success/failure in weeks) rather than a gaming one (success/failure in months or years). As publishers and distributors count their takes, the retailers are the ones facing the customers with a wad of deep-ordered books and pamphlets. And to their dismay, they sell just like any other game does, over the long term - the good ones do, and the shitty ones don't.

Did we see a quickie consumer response? Sure! D&D3E came out - of course there was a positive consumer response, especially from those sorts of gamers who moped around wishing for old D&D again (35-40year olds), and those to whom old D&D would appeal but they'd never seen it (young teens). But that's a D&D response, not a D20 one.

Does that mean that D20 "sucks" and that it'll dry up and blow away? Nope. It is a fine and groundbreaking system of ~1987. It's a rather good basic RPG system of its type, and functional generic systems are hard to come by, especially nicely-spiced Gamist ones. It's here.

Think clearly, folks. Don't mistake the three-tier dynamics or marketing hype for what's really happening. Those of us who attend GTS (the GAMA Trade Show) or frequent industry forums know what retailers think of D20, and with the exception of certain excellent basic products (high color, well-known names, solid company backing), they are beginning to realize that they were had.

A "bubble" refers to a period when a product, priced beyond its long-term consumer value, still sells very well. This applies to non-D&D D20 products in terms of the year of the system's initial release, now long gone. It also applies to retailers buying from distributors, not customers buying from retailers. Sure, you can see wads and wads of D20 stuff lining the shelves - but that doesn't mean squat about what's selling, especially in the long term (which retailers almost never track).

That bubble has indeed burst.

Best,
Ron

P.S. All of the above has about fifty unstated nuances and assumes knowledge of a few things that I didn't explain at all. I will not be gentle with publishers who respond to this post as if it were a complete argument. Ask before you descend with wrath.