[Escape from Illeria] Cost/Profit question

[Simons]

I'm nearing a point right now where I will be publishing Escape from Illeria, and am starting to get nervous about the business model, in particular the costs, expenses, and price.  The questions I'm about to ask feel like Business 101, but I've never done anything like this before, and am trying to grasp my head around the numbers. 

As nice as it would be to make enough money off this game to retire (hahaha), the goal I'm setting for myself is to at least break even.  Here are the costs I have worked out:
$100-> Interior art (maybe more if I really want it, but probably not)
$120-> Cover art (optional, though I'm leaning towards "yes")
$35-> Registration fee with the US copyright office
$50-> Fee to purchase an ISBN # at Lulu (probably not, though I'm still debating if it's worth it, and would be curious to hear your thoughts.  It's only useful if you're selling to gaming stores, right?  How difficult is that?)

If I do go with the first 3 items, the total cost is $255.  The book is currently around 50 pages of text, and would be filled with >$200 worth of art.  I figure that $15 for a book and $10 for a download seems reasonable, and would mean an $8 profit per copy sold.  By my calculations, that means I'd need to sell 32 copies to be in the black. 

I guess my problem comes when I go from theory to practice.  Are there any major costs I overlooked?  Under current pricing and artwork levels does 32 sales sound plausible?  Should I be trying to cut costs more (such as not having cover art)?  Would altering the price slightly affect sales dramatically in any direction?  Should a game like this be selling for more than $15 (or less)?  Also, what are good ways of boosting the number up to 32 and beyond (I've heard sending to reviewers, selling through a venue like Lulu, and talking about it on gaming forums, but beyond that are there any major ideas I'm missing; and if that question is beyond the scope of one topic I'll do my research better and ask again)?

And I'm sure I'm not the first naive first time publisher you've seen on this site.  Is there anything big I'm missing here?

Thanks!

Simon

[Graham W]

Simon, I'm about to publish a small book (a book about games, rather than a game). I've kept my costs very low, by laying it out myself, using Scribus, a freely downloadable product, and getting friends to edit and proofread.

My only tangible cost has been artwork, on which I've spend £14 ($28). They're all photos, bought from Big Stock Photo. I'm very happy with them.

So, from my limited experience and knowledge:

1. You needn't necessarily assume you need the ISBN or registration with the US Copyright Office. Are those things you could do later, if it took off?
2. How are you doing layout? That might be an extra cost. And perhaps editing. You might consider conventions as an additional cost.
3. Compared with figures I've seen for moderately successful games, I think 32 sales sounds plausible, if you're committing to promoting the game, playing it at conventions and so on. (Another way to think of it might be: can you afford to lose X amount of money if it doesn't sell? If you can, then take the risk.)
4. I think there's room for cutting costs more, if you wanted to. You could, for example, use public domain artwork or stock artwork, bought from websites. That might force you into certain design decisions, however.
5. Price is very subjective: if you ask "Should a game like this be selling for more than $15", everyone will give you a different answer. Perhaps try comparing it with similar products: looking at IPR's front page, prices vary from $20 (The Committee For The Exploration Of Mysteries and Blood And Bronze) upwards; and I know that Don't Rest Your Head and Lacuna sell for $15.
6. Play your game a lot, especially at conventions, to promote it. Try to forge links with other publishers: play their game and encourage them to play yours.

Do also search backwards through the Forge for old threads. There's lots of information there.

I stand to be corrected by those with more experience, of course.

Graham

[MatrixGamer]

You are planning to sell 32 of these games. Do you really need to register it at the copyright office or buy an ISBN? Neither of those will help with your sales and given that the copy right will exist even if it isn't registered (NOTE: I'm not laywer but I think it is automatic) do you need to shell that out? The money might be better spent on more cool art work -which could add value to your game.

Honestly I'm not certain where ISBNs help any small press. Do you need them to sell on Amazon? Maybe but I think I saw something that showed you didn't even need it there.

ISBNs and registered copyrights really only seem to matter when larger sales come into it or you're selling through the book distribution system. (I don't think the game distributors need them - not that I would know, never having sold to them before!)

Chris Engle
Hamster Press

[Simons]

Sorry for not responding sooner.  I have 3 questions about your responses (if any of these should be in a different thread, let me know, since they all go in slightly different directions):

1) I guess in terms of copyright, I've got a question.  Lots of people say they don't have it or I don't need it.  Who on this list has actually registered their game with the copyright office?  Does anyone have a "Boy, I'm so glad I did that," or a "Shoot, I wish I had copyrighted it," story?  Or is this really something that no one has ever needed or been glad they had?  (and I would even be interested in big-sellers, just to understand what copyrighting a book does in de-facto life)  I ask in part because every game I looked at on Lulu had a copyright page at the front. 

2) It's not that I'm planning on selling 32 copies.  It's that I want to at least break even, and I'm wondering how best to do that.  If the copyright really isn't needed, then it means I will only need to sell 28 books.  On the other hand, if I decided to double my current art budget, it would mean needing to sell 60 copies. 

I guess my question is this: Is there any ways to project what your sales will be (more-or-less), or is it just a shot in the dark?  Is there any way to estimate "if I spend $120 on cover art, that will increase my sales by between 10 and 50%," or is the effect of artwork also just a shot in the dark?  Is there a way to figure out how price will affect sales, or is that a shot in the dark?  I don't need exact numbers, but some amount of numbers would be better than, "If you buy some artwork, it will boost your sales, if you buy lots of expensive artwork, it will boost your sales more," which is most of what I've found thus far.

(Another way to think of it might be: can you afford to lose X amount of money if it doesn't sell? If you can, then take the risk.)

Perhaps this is just the advice I have to take.  It's very good advice, I just can't help but feel a little unnerved by how much uncertainty there is here (although, perhaps this is just coming from me as a math major and the son of an accountant).

3) How does it affect things if I can't actually do a huge amount of continuous promotion, and don't go to conventions?  (I'm about to start a job that is kind of all-consuming, and will take place in a country where people don't game.  I'll try to do it when I get back, but until then I'm kind of stuck with what I've done before hand.)

Simon

PS Having read former posts (Graham, thanks for the link), I see that probably an ISBN is not needed, since Amazon or Boarders seem out of the picture. 

[Paul Czege]

Hey Simon,

Have you had much play of the game beyond yourself and close friends? Have you turned anyone who isn't a close friend into an enthusiast for the game? And not just for the concept, or clever mechanics, but for the play experience?

From your posts, I have the concept that Escape from Illeria is a party skirmish game? Is that right? How long does it take to play out a skirmish? And what do you think is more fun about it than, say, Warhammer 40K?

Paul

[Valamir]

1) I guess in terms of copyright, I've got a question.  Lots of people say they don't have it or I don't need it.  Who on this list has actually registered their game with the copyright office?  Does anyone have a "Boy, I'm so glad I did that," or a "Shoot, I wish I had copyrighted it," story?  Or is this really something that no one has ever needed or been glad they had?  (and I would even be interested in big-sellers, just to understand what copyrighting a book does in de-facto life)  I ask in part because every game I looked at on Lulu had a copyright page at the front.

Everything you write is automatically copyrighted (to the extent its copyrightable) as soon as you publish it (where "publish" simply means, "make it available to others"...so this sentence that I just...is now 100% copyrighted by me.  Its important to note that your game's mechanics are not copyrightable...just the exact words you use to describe your game mechanics.

What registering your published material does (in the U.S.) is allow you to sue someone for infringement.  If you are not registered you cannot sue them.  So if someone infringes you, you have to register before you can file suit.  What's the difference between registering immediately and waiting until something happens (if it does)?  Well if you register AFTER the infringement takes place then you can only collect actual demonstratable damages.  If you register BEFORE the infringement takes place you can seek to collect court costs and putative damages as well.  Note...all of this information comes right off the U.S government copyright website which I suggest be your next stop.

So as to you questions...having a declaration of copyright page does NOT mean that the item has been registered.  You can declare copyright all you want...I hereby give notice that everything in this post is copyright Ralph Mazza 2007...its not necessary because everything in this post is copyright Ralph Mazza 2007 whether I declare it or not...but its a fairly traditional thing to do in books (because before the 1970s it was a necessary thing to do).  Therefor, do not take those Lulu books to indicate that they are registered...I'd be surprised if most of them are (and note registering also requires sending best edition copies to the Library of Congress).  I did not register Universalis.  I might register Robot & Rapiers because its a much more expensive project and has greater potential for infringement.

So question #1 for you is "if someone plagurized my book would you sue them for it?"  If not then registering is pointless. 

 

2) I guess my question is this: Is there any ways to project what your sales will be (more-or-less), or is it just a shot in the dark?  Is there any way to estimate "if I spend $120 on cover art, that will increase my sales by between 10 and 50%," or is the effect of artwork also just a shot in the dark?  Is there a way to figure out how price will affect sales, or is that a shot in the dark?  I don't need exact numbers, but some amount of numbers would be better than, "If you buy some artwork, it will boost your sales, if you buy lots of expensive artwork, it will boost your sales more," which is most of what I've found thus far.

There are no rules for that I'm afraid and you'll get a ton of conflicting anecdotes...especially alot of the useless ones from people who've never published and are just guessing.

Your sales will be more highly correlated to the amount of EFFORT you put into to marketing vs. the amount of dollars.  Talking about it on-line (which is more effective if you spend the time to participate in a non-sales mode first) getting people to do reviews, posting actual play reports, getting others to post actual play reports, having a forum where folks are actively discussing the game, will all lead to more sales than spending an extra $50 on your cover will.

The biggest hurdle for you will be saturation.  There was a time 3-4 years ago when indie-games were new and lots of people were clamoring for something different and there was very much a "if you build it, they will come" environment.  Today, if you actually want to have an ongoing stream of sales as part of your measure of success, you'll have to work a good bit harder to be noticed and to differentiate yourself.

As a data point, Universalis sold 100 copies in a couple of months and has since sold well over 1000 and still regularly sells 10-20/mo

[Simons]

Hey guys, sorry it took so long to reply to this.  I wanted to take some time to let your posts sink in before I really responded, and have had only sparse internet in the last few days (at a friend's for Thanksgiving weekend).

Paul,

I've thought long and hard about this, and maybe you have a good point.  Mostly it has been just my close friends that have played it, although the one who's played it the most seems to rip it a new one after every game.  I know that at least helps with the yes-men problem, although I guess the trying to get others jazzed up about it might be difficult.  I have gotten a lot of positive responses about the game concept, though lately I've worried that that might not be enough.

I'm going to take some time to ponder if this is really ready to produce, although I think it's at least close.  I mean, what criteria do you all use for when a game is "ready"?  Is it best to just use the Kenitzia thing (or however his name his spelled) and say it's done when the game stops needing improvements, or is there a better way?  Or, is that even enough?

It is a party skirmish game, yes.  A single game takes 1 1/2 to 2 hours to play.  I think it's more fun than 40K for a number of reasons.  First, there is more planning and more strategy involved, whereas I know in a lot of 40K games it's just push your armies into each other, and use everyone as much as you can.  And the two boards add to this degree of strategic complexity, without adding to much to rules complexity.  It's cheaper, since you don't need to buy new miniatures (not exactly a "fun" factor, but a niceness factor, since this game costs the price of half of a squad).  It's faster, and there is a bit less dice rolling.  A lot of the basic things are simpler, and yet there is a lot more variation possible.  I don't know, personally really like some of the mechanics I put into it, I think they add a level of neat-ness to the game.  Plus, personally I'm more a fan of smaller games, where you have a few interesting characters, instead of hordes of simple boring ones, especially when your characters evolve over time.  Lastly, I think the character creation system lends to a lot of creativity once you get into advanced games (I have heard it compared to a ccg in it's level of interesting complexity).  Does that give you a start?  I know that this was 40K specific, and that some of these things get fixed in other games, but I'm not sure of any game that does all of these things. 

And Chuck,

You make a good point about the copyrighting.  Has anyone on this list ever been ripped off and needed to sue?  It just dawned on me that I'm not sure if I have any way of finding out, and as such am not sure if I'd have any way of enforcing it. 

In terms of the marketing thing, I had two questions.  First, it seems like about half of the marketing ideas you have involve having a website.  Is there a good cheap way to get one?  Is it worth it to have it professionally designed (for example Chuck, you had a very nice one, who made yours?)?  And if so, how much do web designers cost?

And I asked if there are economic rules under the idea that this might be more a science than an art (although I suppose if it was, well, the whole feel of the market would be different, and people wouldn't exactly need ongoing forums like this).  The one piece of advice I did get from my mother (the accountant) is do market research to see what is reasonable.  Have started looking at prices, and I know there have been a number of posts before about art.  From what I can see (from a brief search thus far), a lot of games on Lulu are more like $20 or $25, but are also much longer; and a lot of games on RPGNow are $7-$18. 

Simon

[Paul Czege]

Hey Simon,

I'm with you. I like squad skirmish games better than army skirmish games. (I regret I never had a chance to try Inquisitor before GW idled it.) And I don't think 40K is a particularly fun game. (For lots of reasons, but mostly because I dislike the slop factor of measuring and adjudicating movement and ranges. It never seems like a victory is fair.)

My recommendation is to get some external playtesting. The point at which you have created a couple of enthusiasts for the game experience from folks who aren't your friends is the point at which you can confidently expect to sell 60 copies over the course of 12-15 months. At that point I think you should move forward on publishing it.

Paul

[Simons]

(and sorry, not Chuck, I meant to say Ralph, I didn't have this window open when I typed in my reply, and for some reason got your name confused with someone else's, and forgot to check).

[MatrixGamer]

The question about profit and loss isn't just the break even point on sales. I firmly believe that anyone can sell a hundred copies of pretty much anything (you just sell it to friends, people you run for at conventions and to people you meet in forums.) What we often leave out are convention costs and advertising. If you are at a con that cost $. If you were going to be there anyway then it's cool - your hobby doesn't have to pay for itself. Advertising for me usually means the cost of samples I send out to reviewers.

I well know that dream of selling a lot of my game. It certainly can happen. Ralph's Universalis hit well at the right time. My Matrix Games have been around a lot longer and have not had the same splash. Part of this is luck another is personality. I tend to be a reserved person and I know that has slowed down my progress. It gets a little off topic but I'd look at my "self" before art costs to gain a prediction of sales. The more you work it - hustle - the more you will sell. Anyone - even reserved people can sell 100 units, doing more, well... it takes more of "us".

I love skrimish games btw. Good luck!

Chris Engle
Hamster Press