The PDF Market

[quozl]

Clinton recently said this in the Anvilwerks forum:

* I think that the PDF market is going to bottom out in about six months. Atlas Games did a smart thing when they released Ars Magica for free. AEG managed to be the first on the bandwagon. In six months, when most of the industry gets on board with the "free PDF, costly hardcopy" idea, people will cease to buy PDFs. I can imagine how Atlas came to their decision, reading posts about why people do and don't buy PDFs on other forums. They don't lose a single customer by releasing it that way, and probably gain quite a few.

I'm not bitter about this, though: it's actually a good deed done, helping to get more information into more people's hands for less cost.

I also had the same thoughts when I found out Ars Magica was released as a free PDF and also when the Deadlands Players Guide was released as a free PDF.

My question: Is this a danger?  If so, what can be done now in order to sustain the PDF market?

[Ron Edwards]

Hi Jonathan,

In many ways, I think your question is kind of knocked-sideways from the start. Markets aren't "made" to do anything unless one literally controls the means of promotion and distribution. By their very nature, on-line PDFs' distribution and promotion cannot be controlled, barring some sort of hideous internet innovation.

I don't think "sustaining" PDF market viability is an issue. The question is, rather, are they viable products, and if they aren't, what to do instead or how to make maximal use of them for selling something else.

Best,
Ron

[quozl]

I don't think "sustaining" PDF market viability is an issue. The question is, rather, are they viable products, and if they aren't, what to do instead or how to make maximal use of them for selling something else.

Best,
Ron

Thank you Ron for the better wording.  If I'm getting what you're saying right, please consider my question to be: Is this a danger?  If so, what can we do now to insure the viability of PDF products?

I'd really rather not discuss in this thread what to do instead of PDFs or what use can be made of them for selling something else.

[szilard]

Thank you Ron for the better wording.  If I'm getting what you're saying right, please consider my question to be: Is this a danger?  If so, what can we do now to insure the viability of PDF products?

One thing that I think would help is if more products made fuller use of the capabilities of PDFs. There are some features that PDFs have that books never will (hypertext, full-text search capabilities, whatever).

Unfortunately, these seem to be rarely made use of. If these features are added to more PDF-only works (and done well), then I suspect many people will begin to see that the format has benefits.

Also, it might be worthwhile to zip together a full PDF along with independently formatted shorter PDFs with things like character creation rules, reference sheets, and character sheets that can easily be printed and passed around the table. That would be another added bonus.

Stuart

[Paul Czege]

Yeah, as someone whose plans are to have a pdf game for sale in the next five months, I was a bit shaken by Clinton's prediction when I read it this morning. My plan is for a micro-sized "convention edition" print run of My Life with Master, followed by pdf sales. If the bottom drops out of pdf games in six months and I don't get any pdf sales, I won't earn enough profit to pay myself back for my initial investment in artwork and printing costs.

Ron's viability comment though, that's some nice contrary food for thought. So I'm thinking. Viability determines whether people will pay for your game. But the question the becomes, what defines viability for a pdf game? And I'm thinking that utilization of the technical features of the pdf format is nice, but isn't necessary or sufficient. Why aren't Ars Magica and Deadlands viable, in the sense that their publishers can expect people to pay for them as pdf products? It can't be because they don't exploit the technical features of the format.

The idea that these games are intentionally being used for selling something else, supplements or whatever, is interesting to consider, but actually obfuscates the issue of viability. Am I to believe the publishers would be giving these core books away free if they as well as the individual titles that make up their product lines were all independently viable? No way. These two core books have either intrinsic lack of viability, or lack of viability aggravated by the context of their product line or something.

What do you think?

Paul

[Ron Edwards]

Here's my thought.

1. Presume that James' experiment with the POD version of The Questing Beast is a raving success - great quality, great price, reliable business. Both Paul, with My Life with Master, and I, with Trollbabe, are watching this experiment very carefully.

2. Presume that I (for instance) get rid of Trollbabe as a PDF entirely and instead keep a small stock on hand for fulfilment as a POD book. Presume as well that I find some way to handle fulfilment without driving myself insane.

3. So .... then, PDF stuff at the website becomes plentiful and free - character sheets, maps, pictures, supplementary material of all kinds, adventures, whatever.

3-prime. As above, but keep the Trollbabe PDF too, charging exactly the same as for the hard copy less shipping.

That doesn't sound like too bad of an idea ...

Best,
Ron

[Clinton R. Nixon]

Why aren't Ars Magica and Deadlands viable, in the sense that their publishers can expect people to pay for them as pdf products? It can't be because they don't exploit the technical features of the format.

The idea that these games are intentionally being used for selling something else, supplements or whatever, is interesting to consider, but actually obfuscates the issue of viability. Am I to believe the publishers would be giving these core books away free if they as well as the individual titles that make up their product lines were all independently viable? No way. These two core books have either intrinsic lack of viability, or lack of viability aggravated by the context of their product line or something.

What do you think?

First, I think I was quoted well out of context.

Second, and to your point, Paul, I think the idea of selling Ars Magica and Deadlands as PDFs never occured to their publishers. If it did, they're made non-viable by two things:
a) their girth. Seriously. Printing either of them out is prohibitively expensive.
b) the market of people who buy PDFs. This is a very raw estimate, but I'd say that 5-10% of the people who buy more than one game a month are even aware of PDF publishing.

Given that, giving away core rulebooks works in Atlas' and Pinnacle's favor: they expand the PDF marketplace by making more people aware of PDFs, which allows them to sell more PDF supplements. (I don't know about Pinnacle, but Atlas has been selling PDF supplements for some time.) Now, this is a crazy thought, but: what if the intention of this move was to invert the normal flow of money for these lines? That is, normally, core books make money and supplements break even and renew core book buying. If the core book was free, and supplements cheap and plentiful and low cost to the publisher, the core book could be removed from the picture, allowing supplements to bring in the income.

Now, that's a far-fetched idea. A more likely idea is that Atlas and Pinnacle both took old games, each of which had probably been bought by 90% of gamers who would ever buy the core book, and released them as free PDFs in order to renew interest in the decaying line. Or, perhaps, they did it just to help others. iD software (publishers of Doom, Quake, and such) do this - when a game's about a year or two old, they release the code as open-source software. This spreads information - a good thing, as I mentioned - and renews interest in their code base.

[quozl]

First, I think I was quoted well out of context.

I'm sorry about that.  I tried to preserve the thought as best I could.  It was an excellent post but I thought it might be a bit much to quote all of it.  For those who haven't read it, read it here: http://www.indie-rpgs.com/viewtopic.php?t=5731

Now back to the topic, does anyone disagree that PDFs will lose viability by the "big guys" releasing core books for free?  I see it as a danger but not inevitable.

[Paul Czege]

Hey Ron,

I wasn't aware that James was planning a POD version of The Questing Beast. POD ala RPGnow, to my understanding, incorporates fulfillment. Last I heard he was looking at a small print run using Berryville, and was planning to do his own fulfillment just like he does with ROCG. Perhaps his plans have changed.

Presume that I (for instance) get rid of Trollbabe as a PDF entirely and instead keep a small stock on hand for fulfilment as a POD book.....then, PDF stuff at the website becomes plentiful and free - character sheets, maps, pictures, supplementary material of all kinds, adventures, whatever.

But that's just format. You're the one that raised the idea of viability. I think there's a correspondence between format and viability, in that print products are often more desirable, but there's certainly not a correlation. Otherwise Ars Magica wouldn't now be a free pdf. I'm confused by your second post because now you're talking about how to react to Clinton's predicted customer disinterest in the pdf format by changing the format. And sure, that's an option, but in your first post I thought you were suggesting the disinterest was unrelated to format..."are they viable products" was referring to pdfs, not specifically to Ars Magica and Deadlands?

Paul

[Matt Snyder]

I think that the fact that these are older, established lines whose expenses have (presumably) been paid is a huge factor that cannot be overlooked.

When Atlas, et al, start releasing free, 250 pp. NEW games, then I'll really start to sweat. I believe people most of us Forge folks market to will continue to pay for new, compelling games because they can't get it anywhere else. The innovation, the newness, and the exclusivity make these games viable. Naturally, the limitation is that the market is relatively meager.

But, in that sense, having "real" games released in this way on PDF and catching lots of attention for it could very conceivably HELP us expand that market because, plainly, people are that much more likely to accept games as PDF / electronic products. "Hey, if Deadlands is on PDF, maybe all my paranoia is for nothing. This is kinda useful and neato. Hey, what's this Paladin thingy? .... "

[Patrick Boutin]

Hello everybody,

Just want to put my 2 cents in it....

Finally the rpg computer product (pdf files) gets in the computer jumpwagon!! What I mean is that it's an old marketing scheme in the computer area. It had been there for a long time with computer software: you give an old version with hope that people will buy the new one.

Can it work with rpg?!?! I think it's going to be exactly the same way with free software: you will keep the free pdf file but never buy the new book. You'll do with with what you have in your hands.

Is this a danger?!? I don't think so. How can we sustain the pdf market? Humm... only produce pdf!!! If we keep the price low and if our game, supplement or whatever is only available in pdf format then if somebody really want it he will buy it!

Can it help selling something else? I'm really not sure. If you give ars magica 4 when ars magica 5 is out then why people will bother to buy old supplements?!

I maybe wrong but I'm just trying to understand the motives behind this move.

That's it!

Patrick

[Mike Holmes]

I think the doom and gloom is unwarranted. Might there be a PDF cost adjustment from this? Maybe, but even that's not certain. I think a five buck PDF will remain a five buck PDF.

Mike

[Bruce Baugh]

For what it's worth, several of my friends have gone to RPG Now to get free Ars Magica and ended up poking around while they were there. In chemistry there's the concept of activation energy, the hump you have to get over from this state to that one. That one may be lower-energy than where you are now, but you can't just slide straight down; you have to get over the hill first. The presence of a game that is both well-known or at least widely discussed and free gets people over the hump to check out RPG Now. Once they're there, they poke around.

So I suspect that the end result of this will be a relatively small but useful boost for the folks publishing PDF only or PDF primarily.

[Scott_Lynch]

Howdy, all--

I can't really comment on the commercial viability of the PDF-as-precursor-to-print-release process, since I'm not doing anything of the sort.

My focus right now is solely on PDFs for PDF's sake. The data I have to offer might be skewed by the fact that I work extensively with the d20 system, for which (despite all rumors to the contrary) there is still a very viable market provided you know what the heck you're doing. A flood of poorly-written crap can't drown out interest in decently conceived and written products. If it could, I wouldn't be in business-- but reflect on the fact that I am now making a *full-time living* exclusively from the sale of PDFs.

The biggest surprise of the past few months has, for me, been RPGnow. I put *The Book of Distinctions & Drawbacks* up for sale there as a test, having already sold 100+ off my own website in just two days. Consider that the BODD required four solid days of work to put together, so I was already well-paid for said week. Imagine my surprise when I sold another 150+ copies on RPGnow in a month and a half (those looking at RPGnow might be interested to discover that even that volume of sales hasn't yet broken it into the top 50 all-time sellers).

I've put a total of 5 PDFs on the market since July of '02, and so far only one has been placed on RPGnow.com. My rough sales figures to date are:

*Deeds Not Words:* Just cresting 300 units sold
*The Book of Distinctions & Drawbacks:* Just past 275 units sold
Three other books: Combined sales of 400+

I am extremely skeptical of any claim that the market I depend on is going to "bottom out" as a result of any of the actions or influences described in this thread. My optimism is based in large part on the PDF format and my business model itself-- I have no warehouse or shipping overhead costs, no need to deal with distribution chains, no employees save freelance artists, no schedule to work to save my own, and an extreme degree of flexibility with my products. It's conceivable that a PDF micropublisher like me could discern a market trend or spot an unfilled nice and respond to it in a matter of two or three weeks. As I said, the BODD was a four-day project. It started as a for-fun 8-page handout and evolved into a for-sale 45-pager in just that time. When skilled writers and designers (I'm no schlub, but there are also folks out there like Monte Cook and Philip J. Reed whose production values far exceed my own, and I'm sure they could be as fleet-of-finger if required) can steer a new course in a very intimate and feedback-rich market five to ten times faster than print publishers can in theirs, it's going to take a serious shock to render that market unviable for them. Right now, for example, you'd really have to take out RPGnow.com to drive me back to a day job, and it's possible in even a few months that they won't represent the majority of my ongoing income. We'll see-- not that I'm not enjoying my partnership with them immensely. ;)

Then again, as I said-- I'm a d20 guy and most of the people reading this forum aren't. My business, if affected at all by 2500+ downloads of *Ars Magica 4th,* can only be positively affected as a result of more exposure of my books to new RPGnow visitors. The number of total sales I need to make to pay the rent, keep food on the table, and pay my artists is simply too small, relatively speaking, for me to play by the same rules as most other publishers, expecially those with a print release schedule. Rather like a cockroach, Cryptosnark is, small and stealthy and hard to eradicate.

So take everything I have to say with a grain of salt. I a) play by different rules than most publishers and I b) sell a certain set of rules that not everyone hereabouts approves of. My experiences might not apply for anyone else, but there they are nonetheless.  

Cheers,

SL

[Scott_Lynch]

It occurs to me that I might not have adequately and specifically dealt with Clinton's original "worry," which is at second glance a great deal more solid and astute than it first seemed. Now that I grok in fullness, let me add a bit.

I think that the PDF market is going to bottom out in about six months. Atlas Games did a smart thing when they released Ars Magica for free. AEG managed to be the first on the bandwagon. In six months, when most of the industry gets on board with the "free PDF, costly hardcopy" idea, people will cease to buy PDFs. I can imagine how Atlas came to their decision, reading posts about why people do and don't buy PDFs on other forums. They don't lose a single customer by releasing it that way, and probably gain quite a few.

So, if I read you correctly, Clinton, the possibility exists that free, complete PDF releases of "big company" print material might become something of an industry standard rather than an aberration, at least among the folks for whom an extra few hundred sales would be celebrated rather than footnoted.  

I can see what you're getting at, but I just can't see it having any effect on the "cockroaches" like myself and at least a few others. Individuals and companies continuing to produce unique and/or quality (the two traits are not necessarily *both* required for success) commercial PDFs, and filling or expanding upon niches that the print companies can't devote the time and resources to, should continue to flourish at their own relatively "little" level of success.

I also can't see it having a negative effect on what most of the folks here produce, either. If I might put forward an argument, it's that potential PDF customers are predominantly content-driven rather than medium-driven. That is, if there's a commercial PDF that they want, they'll buy it as long as there's no free alternative... in fact, sometimes they'll buy it even if there is. My experience tells me that someone willing to spend money on a PDF would view a free PDF on the same subject as a bonus rather than a replacement for the commercial PDF that caught their eye. The D&D community council puts out free netbooks of d20 feats up the yin-yang, yet commercial PDF books of feats and character classes continue to perform rather well at RPGnow.com.  

For another specific example-- the "Paragon" d20 supers system is free, but I'd say that *Deeds Not Words* is several times more popular, at least, and certainly has a much more flourishing web community.

Lastly, we need to check our definitions of "competition." Is octaNe in "competition" with *ShadowRun?* Is *Donjon* in "competition" with *Deadlands?* Hell, I'd go so far as to argue that *Deeds Not Words* isn't even properly in "competition" with Mutants & Masterminds and Silver Age Sentinels, since each fills such a different niche and I play by such different rules of business success.

We are all, ultimately, in competition for the finite number of dollars potential customers can spend every month, but excepting only that, how can the free release of, say, *AD&D 2nd edition* in PDF or *Earthdawn* in PDF adversely affect anyone hereabouts not working with IP that closely mimics or corresponds to those properties?

Cheers,

SL

P.S. Obviously, I am not oracular. If I were, I'd quit the writing shtick and make my living selling you all the times and dates of your own impending deaths for just $49.95 a pop. As lame as it sounds, time will tell either way, eh? Let's revisit this topic and see what's happening in September '03.